According to my favorite DVD review site, DVDFILE, the movie industry is worried that they may fall victim to the piracy that has allegedly reduced music sales, is going to extreme measures to protect High Definition DVDs against piracy. The plan, detailed here indicates that the discs will be encoded with serial numbers that will be tracked at the point of purchase.
I'm not sure I believe this is actually true, but if it is, I don't imagine that the plan will go far. Copy protection is one thing, but having a serial number follow you wherever you use the disc won't fly with your average consumer. Besides, how would this work in the rental business, where the same copy would be used by tons of different people.
The movie industry has done a smart thing with their sell-through prices, so much so that I doubt your average movie viewer is going to be making copies of every disc that comes down the pike. If the HD discs match the DVDs currently in use, it will be some time before a HD DVD burner is affordable and useful to the public. And since you can buy a DVD for cheaper than two tickets to the movies, I don't think people who didn't pirate before are suddenly going to now.
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